Within the intricate web of social dynamics and statistical analysis, divorce rates stand as a critical gauge of relationship dynamics. In the bustling cityscape of Singapore, the 2022 divorce data presents a treasure trove of insights awaiting exploration. Through the lens of quantitative analysis, one can embark on a journey navigating annulled marriage durations and annual marriage counts, strategically reverse-engineering to uncover the elusive percentage: the precise fraction of marriages that encounter the juncture of divorce within a given year. This statistical expedition promises not only a glimpse into divorce rates but a comprehensive unraveling of the intricate threads composing the marriage fabric, shedding light on the landscape of relationships in Singapore with a precision only numbers can provide. Join in as this journey navigates the fascinating puzzle, decoding the statistical intricacies to paint a comprehensive picture of the state of marriages in Singapore.

Divorce Rates as a Time Series

The divorce rate typically signifies the proportion or percentage of marriages that dissolve or end in divorce within a specific timeframe. It’s a statistical indicator used to understand the stability of marriages within a given population during a certain period.

When divorce rates are calculated against the total number of marriages within a population, it offers insights into the likelihood of marriages ending in divorce. This rate can help assess the health and stability of relationships within a society over time.

However, there’s a distinction between calculating the divorce rate based on marriages versus against the population size. When it’s calculated against the total number of marriages, it focuses specifically on the outcome of marriages, indicating the prevalence of divorce within that specific cohort of married couples.

Divorce Rate (per Marriage cohort)

setting <- list(show = T,type= "scroll",orient= "horizontal", pageButtonPosition= 'start',
                right= 5,top = 30, icon = 'circle', align= 'right', height='85%')

big %>% mutate(Percent = Total_Divorces/`Aggregate Marriages`*100) %>%
  group_by(Seed) %>% arrange(Year) |> e_charts(Year)|>
  e_area(Percent,`Total Marriages`,lineStyle = list(width = 0.5,opacity = 0.4))|>
  e_x_axis(max = YY_,min = 1980,nameLocation = 'center',nameTextStyle = list(fontWeight = 'bolder',padding = 8))|>
  e_y_axis(nameLocation = 'center',nameTextStyle = list(fontWeight = 'bold',padding = 28))|>
  e_legend(z = 5,right = 2,top = 40,bottom = 60,width = 50,selector = "inverse",
           show=TRUE,icon = 'circle',emphasis = 
             list(focus = "series",selectorLabel = list(offset = list(10,0))), 
           align = 'right',type = "scroll",width = 10,orient = "vertical")|>
  e_axis_labels(x = "Year",y = "Percentage of Marriages that ended in divorce")|>
  e_tooltip(formatter = ec.clmn('For marriages that commenced <br> in the year <b>%@</b>,by <br> Year <b>%@</b>,<b> %@% </b> <br> of marriages have terminated',7,1,2)
            ,trigger = "item")|>
  e_title("Divorce rate per Marriage cohort over Years",
          "5 year resolution & Limited temporal reliability of 30 years max")|>
  e_theme("tech-blue")
#Using full echarty version of plot for formatter control - cost of not area chart
# big %>%
#   mutate(Percent = Total_Divorces/`Aggregate Marriages`*100) %>%
#   arrange(Year) %>%  group_by(Seed) |>
# ec.init(
#   tooltip= list( trigger= 'item', formatter=
#         # ec.clmn('Seed<b>%@</b><br> Year <b>%@</b><br> Percentage  <b> %@% </b>',1,2,8)),
#         # or, to avoid counting columns:
#         ec.clmn('For marriages that commenced <br> in the year <b>%@</b>,by <br> Year <b>%@</b>,<b> %@% </b> <br> of marriages have terminated','Seed','Year','Percent')),
#   series.param= list(type= 'line', encode = list(x= 'Year',y= 'Percent')),
#   ,xAxis = list(scale=T)
# )|>ec.theme("tech-blue",westeros)

This plot displaying the percentage of marriages that end in divorce over the years provides insights into the changing dynamics of marriages and divorce trends, offering valuable information about societal shifts, attitudes towards marriage, and the stability of relationships over time.

The maximum percentage of divorces visualised is about 26.2%, demonstrated by the cohort of marriages started between the 2000 and 2004.

How to interpret

This graph generally shows (at a 5 year resolution) the lifespan of marriages. Specifically, it shows the percentage of marriages that perish, by year. Firstly, it is vividly clear that marriages that were started earlier last longer, and even plateau to a smaller percentage of annulments as compared to more modern marriages. This implies that there is an intrinsic difference between older marriages that commenced in earlier years than the newer ones today.

There is also a “limited temporal reliability of 30 years”. This simply means that after 30 years onwards, the percentage of marriages that end in annulments can no longer be meaningfully be distinguished between the cohorts without some insanely unsustainable historical data collection on our part and backtracking. All governments eventually do not see any meaning in distinguishing between the duration of annulled marriages above a certain age. In Singapore’s case, that appears to at about 30 years. This means that divorces recorded in say 2020, that fall under the 30 years and above category in age, could have been from any marriage between the years 1980 and 1990. This definitely explains the strange bump you will see in the earlier marriage cohort curves that spike up in percentage after about 2015 onwards. Since humans are very good at detecting patterns, we shall depend on that very intuition and pattern recognition to use their judgement as to what the real percentage is likely going to look like.

As previously stated, the cohort of marriages started between 2000 and 2004 is currently spearheading a new maxima of divorce rate. It will be interesting to see if the cohort of marriages between 2001 and 2005 will be exceeding this current dominance by the former cohort.

In spite of having more time to divorce, marriages that started in the 1980s and 1990s reach a lower percentage of marriages that end in divorce than earlier marriages that have reached that proportion of annulments in half the time or so. For example, by the year 2010, about 14.4% of marriages started in the 1980 (to 1985) had terminated - i.e. in 25-30 years of time. In the same year, 15% of marriages started in 2000 had terminated - i.e. in 10 years (5-10 years).

 

A work by Mr Misc

override334@gmail.com